Cardboard Prices, Chart, Index, Trends, Demand and Forecast | Q3 2025

Overview of Global Cardboard Price Trends (Q3 2025)

The global Cardboard Prices displayed a mixed trajectory during the third quarter of 2025, shaped by varying demand fundamentals, energy costs, and raw material dynamics across major regions. North America witnessed a moderate increase driven by tighter supply and elevated input costs, while the Asia-Pacific (APAC) market saw a mild downturn due to weak domestic demand and sluggish export performance. In contrast, Europe experienced a notable price rebound as surging energy prices and pulp costs elevated the overall price structure.

Cardboard, a key material for packaging applications across e-commerce, food, and consumer goods sectors, has faced multiple macroeconomic headwinds in 2025. Supply chain normalization following the pandemic, coupled with fluctuations in recovered paper and pulp prices, has created varying regional impacts on production and pricing.

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North America: Cardboard Prices Rise Amid Supply Tightness and Cost Inflation

In North America, the Cardboard Price Index rose by 2.99% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, reflecting a combination of tighter supply and sustained input cost pressures. The average Cardboard price for the quarter stood at USD 573.33 per metric ton, marking a modest yet steady increase compared to the previous quarter.

Demand Dynamics in the United States

In the U.S., packaging and logistics sectors continued to drive moderate demand for cardboard, particularly from retail and food packaging industries. While industrial activity showed a mixed performance, the steady expansion of online retail and packaging consumption during back-to-school and pre-holiday inventory cycles supported prices.

However, the growth was constrained by high borrowing costs and cautious consumer spending. Many converters reported slower offtakes in July and August, but September saw a rebound in demand as seasonal shipments increased.

Supply-Side Constraints and Production Factors

On the supply side, tighter availability from major producers supported the uptrend. Several paper mills in the U.S. and Canada operated at reduced run rates amid planned maintenance and lower recycled paper collection volumes. The limited recovered paper supply added cost pressure, with Old Corrugated Containers (OCC) prices rising modestly during the quarter.

Rising energy tariffs and transportation costs also added to production expenses, particularly for mills located farther from major logistics hubs. These factors collectively sustained the upward trajectory in the Cardboard Price Index.

Export Market Influence

Despite moderate domestic growth, export demand from Latin America and parts of Asia lent additional support to North American prices. Several U.S.-based packaging exporters benefited from favorable currency differentials and stable demand from Mexico, Brazil, and Vietnam. This helped cushion price volatility and prevented sharper corrections.

In summary, the North American cardboard market remained stable yet firm, driven primarily by cost inflation and supply adjustments rather than robust downstream growth.

Asia-Pacific (APAC): Weak Demand in China Drags Down Cardboard Prices

The APAC Cardboard Price Index reflected a contrasting trend in Q3 2025. In China, prices fell by 1.74% quarter-over-quarter, as domestic demand remained subdued amid weak industrial and consumer packaging activity. The average Cardboard price during the quarter was approximately USD 225.67 per metric ton, reflecting modest softness compared to earlier in the year.

Demand Weakness in China’s Packaging Sector

China’s packaging industry, a major consumer of cardboard, continued to face headwinds from slow recovery in retail demand and sluggish export orders. The post-pandemic stabilization in e-commerce spending failed to sustain prior growth levels, while inventory destocking by packaging firms further dampened procurement activity.

Additionally, downstream users such as electronics and textile exporters experienced reduced order inflows from Western economies, constraining packaging material consumption.

Pulp and Recovered Paper Costs in China

One of the key factors influencing price movements was the change in pulp logistics and recovered paper costs. Imported pulp prices remained volatile amid uncertain freight rates and fluctuating energy costs. Although domestic pulp supply improved slightly, the uneven quality and logistics bottlenecks limited the benefits to cardboard producers.

Moreover, Chinese cardboard producers grappled with tight profit margins due to weak selling prices and relatively steady production costs. Some mills adjusted output schedules to balance inventory and mitigate financial losses, which helped prevent a steeper decline in the Cardboard Price Index.

Regional Export Outlook

In export markets, Chinese cardboard shipments to Southeast Asia and South Asia remained modest. While some regional buyers benefited from lower-priced imports, high freight and port handling charges limited transaction volumes. The overall regional sentiment stayed cautious, reflecting a sluggish recovery phase in the APAC packaging sector.

Europe: Cardboard Prices Surge Amid Energy and Pulp Cost Pressures

In Europe, particularly Germany, Cardboard Prices rose by 6.23% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, supported by rising energy costs and high pulp prices. The average Cardboard price in Germany stood at approximately USD 278.67 per metric ton, reflecting a substantial uptick compared to the previous quarter.

Energy Price Impact on Cardboard Manufacturing

Europe’s energy landscape has been volatile since the energy crisis of 2022, and Q3 2025 was no exception. Elevated natural gas and electricity prices significantly impacted the production cost of paper and cardboard mills across Germany, France, and the Netherlands. Producers faced higher operational expenditures, which were subsequently passed on to end users through incremental price adjustments.

Raw Material Cost Escalation

In addition to energy costs, pulp prices in Europe continued to firm due to supply challenges from Northern Europe and South America. Several major pulp producers reported logistics issues, which tightened supply across the region. Recycled paper availability also remained uneven, adding further strain on cardboard manufacturers dependent on secondary fiber inputs.

Demand Trends in the European Market

Despite the cost-driven increase in prices, downstream demand was relatively steady. Packaging demand from the food, beverage, and pharmaceuticals sectors remained resilient, while industrial and retail packaging saw moderate recovery. Seasonal export shipments toward the end of Q3 also lent mild support to cardboard consumption.

European buyers showed mixed purchasing behavior, with some opting for shorter contracts to avoid price risks. Nevertheless, strong producer discipline and cost pass-through strategies helped maintain the upward momentum in Cardboard Prices.

Comparative Regional Analysis

The global cardboard market in Q3 2025 demonstrated distinct regional price behaviors shaped by economic and operational factors:

This table underscores the global divergence in price trends, with Europe’s market showing the strongest gain due to cost-driven pressures, while China’s demand-side weakness weighed on regional sentiment.

Key Market Drivers and Influencing Factors

1. Energy Costs:
   Energy remains one of the most significant contributors to cardboard production costs. With oil and gas prices fluctuating globally, producers in Europe and North America faced higher manufacturing expenses.
2. Recovered Paper Supply:
   The supply of recovered paper, a key feedstock for cardboard production, remained inconsistent across regions. North America experienced collection challenges, while Asia faced logistical constraints in recycled paper imports.
3. Demand from E-commerce and Packaging Sectors:
   Although e-commerce continues to be a key driver for cardboard demand, 2025 saw a moderation compared to the pandemic years. Packaging requirements from fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and industrial applications partially offset this slowdown.
4. Trade and Freight Costs:
   International freight rate fluctuations affected the cost structure and competitiveness of exporters. Particularly for Asian producers, high freight charges limited export opportunities despite lower ex-works prices.
5. Sustainability and Regulatory Pressures:
   The global shift toward eco-friendly packaging has encouraged the use of recycled materials, but regulatory compliance and recycling infrastructure challenges continue to affect production economics.

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Outlook and Forecast for Cardboard Prices (Q4 2025 and Beyond)

Looking ahead, Cardboard Prices are expected to display a cautious upward trend globally, supported by stable demand and continued input cost pressures.

• North America: Prices are likely to remain firm due to limited recovered paper availability and seasonal packaging demand in Q4. However, if energy prices ease, the pace of increase may slow.
• APAC: The Chinese market may stabilize, with potential upside if export orders improve during year-end manufacturing cycles. Rebound in consumer goods packaging could offer mild support.
• Europe: Prices are expected to stay elevated in the short term due to persistent energy and raw material costs. However, moderation could occur in early 2026 if supply improves and inflationary pressures ease.

Overall, the global cardboard market remains cost-sensitive, with pricing trajectories heavily dependent on energy, pulp, and recycled paper markets. Sustained demand from e-commerce, food, and logistics sectors is expected to provide long-term support, although short-term volatility will persist.

Conclusion

The third quarter of 2025 underscored the regional disparity in Cardboard Prices, as each market responded differently to cost and demand fundamentals. The U.S. market displayed resilience amid moderate demand, Europe battled escalating production costs, and China contended with subdued downstream demand.

As global packaging industries continue to evolve, cardboard’s role as a sustainable and essential material ensures steady long-term growth. However, producers and buyers alike must navigate challenges stemming from energy volatility, recycling logistics, and shifting trade flows.

In the coming quarters, Cardboard Prices are likely to remain influenced by macroeconomic trends, input cost dynamics, and sustainability initiatives shaping the global paper and packaging ecosystem.

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