Coconut Oil Price Index: Recent Quarterly Update & Market Analysis
Coconut Oil Price Index: Global Market Analysis and Trends – July 2025
The Coconut Oil Price Index across major global regions—North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific—showed mixed to bullish movements in July 2025, influenced by tightening global supply chains, high input costs, and renewed buying momentum. The U.S. market reflected a steady upward trend, aligning with the bullish rebound seen in European and Asian markets. Reduced exports from key producers such as Indonesia and the Philippines, coupled with limited inventories and logistical bottlenecks, collectively reinforced firm market sentiment across the global coconut oil value chain.
North America: Coconut Oil Price Index Strengthens Amid Supply Tightness
In North America, particularly the United States, the Coconut Oil Price Index displayed an upward trajectory through July 2025, continuing the trend witnessed in preceding months. This rise was primarily supported by constrained global availability and escalating feedstock costs, especially in tropical oil-producing regions of Southeast Asia.
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Supply Constraints and Import Dependence
The U.S. market is heavily reliant on imports from Asia, mainly from the Philippines, Indonesia, and India, which collectively contribute a substantial portion of global coconut oil exports. During July 2025, disruptions in shipping routes, coupled with delays at major ports in Asia, created noticeable inventory shortages in the U.S. market. The reduced availability pushed spot prices upward and tightened downstream supply conditions.
The Spot Price of Coconut Oil (Pharma and Edible Grade) in the U.S. remained firm throughout July, underpinned by:
- Reduced global export volumes, especially from the Philippines.
- Delayed shipments and port congestions.
- Limited stock replenishment by downstream industries due to logistical uncertainties.
Rising Input and Energy Costs
Higher input costs further exacerbated the market tightness. Crude oil and energy prices increased modestly during the same period, raising freight charges and overall production costs for refined coconut oil. Consequently, downstream manufacturers in the food, cosmetics, and pharmaceutical sectors faced higher procurement costs, which sustained the firm price environment.
Downstream Market Dynamics
Demand from the personal care and cosmetic industry remained resilient, as formulators increasingly used coconut-derived fatty acids and glycerides in skincare and haircare applications. The food and beverage sector also contributed to steady consumption, driven by the trend toward natural and plant-based oils as substitutes for hydrogenated fats. However, the pharmaceutical sector witnessed marginally slower purchasing activity due to inventory adjustments from earlier quarters.
Overall, the Coconut Oil Price Index in North America indicated a month-on-month increase in July 2025, suggesting sustained bullish sentiment supported by tighter global supply, strong industrial demand, and elevated logistics costs.
Europe: Price Index Rebounds Amid Renewed Buying and Low Inventories
The European Coconut Oil Price Index rebounded sharply in July 2025, recovering from a 4.20% decline in June, which had been driven by softening regional demand and oversupply in earlier months. The market saw renewed buying interest, particularly from end-users in the Netherlands, Germany, and the United Kingdom, following a temporary easing in prices.
Spot Price Recovery in Rotterdam
The Spot Price for Coconut Oil CFR Rotterdam stood at USD 2,850 per metric ton (MT) in June 2025, reflecting a significant fall from May levels. However, July brought a reversal in trend as the market tightened due to:
- Reduced import arrivals from Southeast Asia.
- Lower regional inventories held by distributors.
- Increased short-term demand from downstream sectors seeking to replenish stock.
By late July, market players observed improved sentiment with moderate upward price adjustments, driven by constrained inventories and limited vessel arrivals. Traders reported increased inquiries from food manufacturers and oleochemical producers who anticipated further tightening in the near term.
Rising Feedstock and Energy Costs
In addition to logistical constraints, rising feedstock costs contributed to the European price rebound. Higher coconut prices in exporting countries directly impacted refining costs for European processors. The concurrent increase in freight and insurance charges, coupled with limited vessel availability, further inflated landed costs.
Market Outlook for Europe
The rebound in the Coconut Oil Price Index in Europe was primarily viewed as a short-term bullish correction, suggesting that while immediate tightness persists, prices may stabilize as new shipments arrive in August and September 2025. Nevertheless, the sustained demand for bio-based surfactants, personal care ingredients, and specialty food oils will likely maintain support for the regional price index through the upcoming quarter.
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Asia-Pacific: Indonesia Leads Regional Recovery in Coconut Oil Prices
In the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, particularly Indonesia, the Coconut Oil Price Index reversed its earlier downward trajectory during July 2025, following a sharp correction in June. The rebound reflected improved domestic market sentiment, supported by constrained coconut supply, rising production costs, and renewed buying activity across export markets.
Spot Price and Supply Dynamics
The Spot Price for Crude Coconut Oil FOB Tanjung Priok was recorded at USD 2,765 per MT in June 2025, marking a notable decline from May due to poor export competitiveness and weaker demand. However, prices trended higher in July as supply-side limitations emerged:
- Coconut yield reductions in major producing provinces due to erratic weather patterns.
- Increased local consumption for domestic processing industries.
- Higher export taxes and transportation costs, which tightened export margins.
This supply tightening, combined with renewed import interest from Europe and the United States, provided a strong uplift to regional market sentiment. Exporters in the Philippines and Indonesia reported increased inquiries, particularly for refined, bleached, and deodorized (RBD) coconut oil grades.
Domestic Consumption and Price Competitiveness
Within Indonesia and the Philippines, growing demand from the oleochemical and biodiesel sectors also contributed to the firm price environment. Local refiners faced higher feedstock costs, which translated into elevated ex-mill prices. Although coconut oil temporarily lost some price competitiveness compared to palm kernel oil, rising palm prices in July narrowed the gap, making coconut oil more attractive again for industrial applications.
Export Market Outlook
Market participants across Southeast Asia anticipate sustained bullish sentiment into the third quarter of 2025, driven by:
- Seasonal production constraints due to unfavorable weather.
- Rising demand from global personal care and edible oil manufacturers.
- Limited inventory carryover from Q2 2025.
The Coconut Oil Price Index in Indonesia and the broader APAC region is expected to remain firm in the short term, with a potential for further gains if export demand continues to recover.
Global Market Overview and Comparative Insights
Synchronized Supply Tightness
Across all key regions—North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific—the Coconut Oil Price Index demonstrated a synchronized tightening pattern in July 2025. Reduced export availability from major producers, high freight costs, and inventory drawdowns were common themes influencing market sentiment globally.
The sharp recovery in European and Asian prices directly influenced U.S. import values, while the narrowing spread between Coconut Oil and Palm Kernel Oil prices further strengthened the case for bullish price corrections in the short term.
Demand from End-Use Sectors
Coconut oil remains a critical raw material in multiple end-use segments:
- Food and Beverages: Used in bakery fats, confectionery coatings, and vegan alternatives.
- Cosmetics and Personal Care: High demand for natural oils and surfactants.
- Pharmaceuticals and Nutraceuticals: Used in capsules, topical formulations, and wellness products.
The recovery in these downstream sectors after earlier inventory adjustments provided additional momentum for price stabilization across regions.
Macroeconomic and Trade Influences
Geopolitical and macroeconomic factors also played a role. Ongoing shipping disruptions through the South China Sea and logistical bottlenecks at key Asian ports constrained timely exports. Moreover, a weaker U.S. dollar during parts of July improved export competitiveness for Asian suppliers, further tightening availability in Western markets.
Coconut Oil Price Index Forecast (Q3–Q4 2025)
The outlook for the Coconut Oil Price Index heading into Q3 and Q4 2025 suggests a continuation of firm-to-bullish sentiment, though volatility remains possible depending on production trends and weather conditions in key coconut-growing regions.
Short-Term Forecast (Q3 2025)
- North America: Prices likely to remain elevated due to limited import arrivals and steady downstream demand.
- Europe: A mild price correction may occur as new shipments arrive, but overall levels expected to stay above June lows.
- APAC: Sustained upward pressure expected amid tight regional supply and rising domestic consumption.
Medium-Term Outlook (Q4 2025)
Market conditions could gradually stabilize by late Q4 2025 if global production improves and shipping routes normalize. However, structural demand growth from the sustainable ingredient and wellness markets will likely maintain price support even amid moderate supply recovery.
Conclusion: Tight Global Supply Keeps the Coconut Oil Price Index Elevated
In summary, the Coconut Oil Price Index across major global regions experienced a pronounced rebound in July 2025, reversing earlier declines seen in June. North American prices strengthened in response to reduced imports, while European markets showed a notable bullish correction driven by renewed buying and limited inventories. Meanwhile, in Asia-Pacific, the market regained traction as domestic constraints and export demand converged to lift prices.
Although short-term corrections are possible as supply chains adapt, the overall sentiment remains bullish, with strong structural demand from food, cosmetic, and pharmaceutical industries. As producers continue to face higher input costs and weather-related uncertainties, the Coconut Oil Price Index is expected to maintain firmness into the upcoming quarters of 2025.
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