Global Wheat Demand Outlook and Price Forecast 2025

Wheat Price Trends and Market Analysis – July 2025

North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific (APAC)

Introduction

The global wheat market in mid-2025 reflected a mixed sentiment across key consuming and producing regions. While supply-side improvements, harvest expectations, and shifting demand dynamics influenced the trajectory in Europe and Asia-Pacific, North America showed a distinct reversal from earlier bullish momentum. July 2025 marked a critical turning point, as the global wheat price indices indicated corrections after months of volatility. This article provides an in-depth analysis of wheat price movements in North America, Europe, and APAC, with a particular focus on the underlying drivers shaping these regional dynamics.

North America: Reversal in Wheat Prices

Price Index Performance

In the United States, the Wheat Price Index experienced a notable decline in July 2025, reversing the upward trajectory that had dominated much of the preceding months. Prices fell from USD 225/MT in June as market fundamentals shifted toward greater supply visibility. The correction highlighted an easing of earlier concerns about tight inventories and weather-related risks.

Supply-Side Dynamics

Improved production prospects across the U.S. Midwest and Northern Plains played a central role in driving prices downward. Earlier in the year, fears of dry weather and heat stress across major wheat-growing belts had supported firm pricing. However, favorable July weather conditions—including adequate rainfall and moderating temperatures—bolstered yield expectations. The USDA’s updated crop progress reports pointed to healthier-than-expected crop conditions, easing immediate supply concerns.

The U.S. also benefited from steady carry-over stocks from the 2024/25 season, cushioning the domestic market against short-term shocks. With better harvest projections, the perception of scarcity that had underpinned earlier bullishness weakened significantly.

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Demand and Export Trends

On the demand side, U.S. wheat exports showed a softer pace in July compared to Q2 2025. Global buyers increasingly sought competitively priced wheat from the Black Sea and Asia-Pacific origins, limiting the growth potential for U.S. exports. Additionally, the appreciation of the U.S. dollar during mid-2025 eroded the competitiveness of U.S. wheat in international markets.

Domestic demand from flour millers and the food processing sector remained steady but failed to offset weaker export performance. Feed demand, which often spikes during periods of corn shortages, remained muted as corn supply also improved in parallel.

Market Sentiment and Outlook

The July 2025 reversal in U.S. wheat prices underscored the shift from supply anxiety to supply confidence. Market participants anticipated more stable pricing through late Q3 2025, barring unforeseen weather events during the critical harvest period. Futures markets reflected cautious optimism, with contracts stabilizing after the July decline.

Europe: Russian Wheat Prices Slide

Price Index Trends

In Europe, the Wheat Price Index in June 2025 showed sharp downward movement. The FOB Novorossiysk (Russia) benchmark dropped by 8.13%, settling at USD 226/MT. This decline was particularly significant given Russia’s dominant role as the world’s largest wheat exporter.

Harvest and Supply Outlook

The primary driver of the price correction in Russia was optimism surrounding the upcoming harvest. Reports from agricultural authorities highlighted ample crop expectations for the 2025/26 season, supported by favorable agronomic conditions across key producing regions. The anticipation of a robust harvest significantly eased supply concerns, thereby exerting downward pressure on prices.

In addition, Russia’s aggressive planting strategies from late 2024 and expanded acreage were expected to contribute to higher wheat availability in the market. Farmers across the Volga, Southern, and Central regions anticipated strong yields, reinforcing bearish fundamentals.

Export Challenges

Despite strong harvest prospects, Russian wheat exports in June faced logistical constraints and subdued foreign demand. Lower export volumes compared to earlier months created oversupply pressures in the domestic market. Furthermore, international buyers held back on large-scale procurement, waiting for clearer signals on harvest outcomes and pricing stability.

Geopolitical dynamics also influenced the market. Sanctions-related uncertainties and evolving trade restrictions limited Russia’s access to some traditional buyers, pushing exporters to rely more heavily on alternative markets such as the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia. However, competition from other origins restrained export growth.

European Wheat Market Implications

Beyond Russia, other European producers—including France, Germany, and Ukraine—also reported steady-to-strong harvest expectations. This continental abundance further weighed on regional sentiment. European millers and food manufacturers benefited from lower procurement costs, but farmers faced squeezed margins due to falling spot prices.

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Outlook for Europe

The outlook for European wheat through Q3 2025 remains largely bearish, with harvest season likely to keep supply levels high. Unless extreme weather events disrupt production, wheat prices in Europe are expected to remain under downward pressure.

Asia-Pacific: Indian Wheat Market Softens

Price Index Movement

In Asia-Pacific, particularly in India, the Wheat Price Index also recorded a downward shift in July 2025. The Ex-Bareilly (India) benchmark softened, reversing the marginal upward trend seen in June. The decline reflected easing procurement activity and reduced buyer engagement in local mandis (wholesale markets).

Domestic Procurement and Supply

India, one of the world’s largest wheat producers, entered July with robust procurement by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) already completed earlier in the season. With government agencies scaling back additional procurement, private buyers found themselves with ample supplies in the open market. This reduced urgency among traders and millers contributed to weaker prices.

Additionally, strong output from the 2024/25 rabi season harvest ensured sufficient availability, adding to bearish fundamentals. Reports from major producing states such as Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Madhya Pradesh confirmed that wheat arrivals remained steady, even as demand tapered.

Buyer Sentiment and Market Drivers

Weak buyer activity in July was another critical factor. Flour mills and traders limited purchases in anticipation of further price corrections, preferring a wait-and-watch approach. Moreover, the government’s buffer stock management policies reassured domestic buyers about long-term availability, thereby reducing speculative buying.

Internationally, Indian wheat remained less competitive compared to cheaper Black Sea and Australian origins. With limited export opportunities, the domestic market absorbed most of the supply, intensifying downward pressure on local prices.

Outlook for India and APAC

Going forward, India’s wheat market is expected to remain relatively stable but soft, as robust supply and weaker procurement sustain bearish momentum. In broader APAC, other key producers such as Australia are also anticipating healthy harvests, which could further influence regional supply dynamics.

Comparative Regional Analysis

Price Levels and Movements

• North America (USA): Wheat prices declined in July 2025 to below USD 225/MT, reversing earlier gains due to improved supply confidence.
• Europe (Russia FOB Novorossiysk): Prices fell sharply by 8.13% in June, reaching USD 226/MT, on the back of strong harvest expectations and weaker export demand.
• Asia-Pacific (India Ex-Bareilly): Prices softened in July, reversing June’s marginal gains as procurement slowed and buyer activity declined.

Common Drivers Across Regions

Several overlapping themes influenced the global wheat market during mid-2025:

1. Improved Harvest Prospects: Favorable weather and strong output expectations in the U.S., Russia, and India reinforced supply-side confidence.
2. Weak Buyer Sentiment: Across regions, buyers delayed procurement, anticipating further price corrections.
3. Export Competition: Global trade dynamics favored lower-cost origins, creating pressure on higher-priced suppliers.
4. Geopolitical Factors: Particularly in Europe, sanctions and trade barriers shaped export flows and pricing dynamics.

Divergences in Regional Trends

Despite common themes, regional divergences were evident:

• The U.S. decline was largely supply-driven but cushioned by steady domestic demand.
• Russia’s price fall was sharper, linked to both ample harvest prospects and export bottlenecks.
• India’s softness was demand-driven, tied to slowing procurement and limited export competitiveness.

Global Outlook for Wheat Prices

Short-Term (Q3 2025)

In the short term, wheat prices across major regions are likely to remain under pressure due to strong harvest expectations and subdued demand. Supply abundance is the dominant narrative, with buyers exercising caution in procurement. Futures markets suggest a period of consolidation, with localized weather disruptions posing the primary upside risk.

Medium-Term (Q4 2025 – Early 2026)

As global trade flows stabilize, competition among exporters—particularly between Russia, the U.S., and Australia—will shape pricing trends. Policy interventions, including government procurement strategies in India and export controls in Russia, may introduce volatility. Food inflation dynamics, particularly in developing markets, will also play a role in demand-side behavior.

Conclusion

The wheat market in July 2025 underscored the cyclical nature of global agricultural commodities. North America’s price reversal, Europe’s sharp decline led by Russia, and India’s market softness in APAC each reflected the impact of improved supply visibility and cautious demand. While the underlying fundamentals suggest continued bearishness in the short term, external shocks—from geopolitical disruptions to adverse weather—remain potential catalysts for volatility.

In this context, stakeholders across the value chain, from farmers to traders and policymakers, must navigate a market where supply abundance offers short-term relief but creates long-term challenges for profitability and competitiveness. The remainder of 2025 will thus be a critical period for balancing production optimism with evolving trade realities.

🌐 Get Real Time Prices for Wheat: https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/wheat-1324

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