Propylene Price Index: Trend, Chart, Recent Quarterly Update, Market Analysis

Propylene Price Index 2025: Global Overview and Regional Market Analysis

The Propylene Price Index exhibited a downward trend across major global regions in the second quarter (Q2) of 2025, reflecting the effects of ample supply, soft downstream demand, and uncertain macroeconomic conditions. From North America to Asia-Pacific (APAC) and Europe, the market experienced a synchronized price decline, while MEA and South America showed relatively mixed dynamics influenced by crude oil fluctuations, production costs, and import competition.

As propylene is a key feedstock for polypropylene (PP), acrylonitrile, and propylene oxide, its price movements are closely linked to refinery operations, PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) plant rates, and downstream manufacturing activity. Q2 2025 marked a period of market readjustment, as both supply and demand forces evolved amid ongoing global trade realignments.

North America: Significant Decline in Propylene Price Index

The Propylene Price Index in North America declined sharply by 15.5% in Q2 2025 compared to Q1. By the end of June, Propylene Polymer Grade DEL US Gulf settled at USD 803/MT, reflecting a substantial drop from the previous quarter.

Key Market Drivers

The North American propylene market faced excess supply as refinery and PDH operating rates remained strong throughout the quarter. Increased refinery output, coupled with steady propane dehydrogenation production, contributed to a flooded market scenario. The rise in propylene inventories weighed heavily on the regional Propylene Price Index, which trended downward across April–June 2025.

On the demand side, polypropylene converters operated at reduced capacities due to soft end-user demand from the automotive, packaging, and construction sectors. The slowdown in downstream production translated into weaker offtake for polymer-grade propylene (PGP), further depressing prices.

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Macroeconomic and Trade Factors

Tariff uncertainties linked to international trade with China and Mexico, alongside holiday-related slowdowns in June, contributed to subdued trading activity. The broader macroeconomic context—characterized by slowing industrial production and moderate inflationary pressures—also constrained downstream consumption.

Market Outlook

Looking ahead, the Propylene Price Index in North America may find near-term support if refinery turnarounds or PDH maintenance reduce available supply. However, unless downstream sectors regain momentum, price recovery could remain limited through early Q3 2025.

Asia-Pacific (APAC): Supply Abundance and Weak Demand Pressure

In the Asia-Pacific region, the Propylene Price Index dropped by 5.1% in Q2 2025 compared with the previous quarter. Propylene FOB Qingdao prices settled at USD 876/MT by the end of June.

Market Dynamics

The decline in prices across APAC was primarily driven by robust supply conditions and sluggish downstream demand. China, the region’s largest propylene consumer, saw high operating rates at PDH and steam cracker units, leading to excess spot availability. This, combined with tepid demand from polypropylene producers, put continuous pressure on the regional index.

In addition, the recovery of refinery utilization in South Korea and Japan post-maintenance further added to supply-side pressure. With regional inventories well-stocked, suppliers faced challenges in maintaining pricing amid declining spot inquiries.

Demand and Sectoral Trends

Weakness persisted in the polypropylene, acrylonitrile, and propylene oxide sectors due to lackluster consumption from packaging and fiber markets. The slowdown in exports from China, influenced by Western import restrictions and lower container freight costs, exacerbated the bearish sentiment.

Future Expectations

While prices could stabilize marginally as the summer progresses, the Propylene Price Index in APAC is expected to remain under pressure in Q3 2025, unless regional demand rebounds or plant outages tighten supply.

Europe: Persistent Downstream Weakness and Ample Inventories

The Propylene Price Index in Europe recorded a 3.5% quarter-on-quarter decline in Q2 2025, settling at USD 928/MT (FD Hamburg) by the end of June. Despite smaller declines compared to North America and South America, European prices remained under sustained pressure due to sluggish downstream activity and ample stock levels.

Market Influences

European producers maintained relatively steady output levels, even as demand from the packaging, construction, and automotive industries remained weak. With converters exercising caution amid sluggish orders, inventory accumulation persisted across the region.

Refinery operating rates increased following spring turnarounds, leading to sufficient feedstock availability. This, combined with slower offtake from polypropylene processors, caused supply-demand imbalances that weighed on the regional Propylene Price Index.

Economic Factors

The macroeconomic backdrop in Europe remained challenging, with slowing GDP growth, energy price volatility, and muted consumer spending. Although crude oil prices showed intermittent recoveries, they were insufficient to offset downstream weakness.

Market Sentiment

Market participants adopted a wait-and-see approach, limiting spot purchases and focusing on contractual obligations. This conservative procurement behavior further reduced liquidity in the spot market.

Middle East & Africa (MEA): Stable Market Amid Counterbalancing Forces

The Propylene Price Index in the Middle East & Africa (MEA) declined marginally by 1.3% in Q2 2025, settling at USD 835/MT (FOB Al Jubail) by the end of June. The MEA region displayed relative price stability, shaped by opposing forces of rising production costs and weak downstream demand.

Supply and Production

High refinery and PDH utilization in Saudi Arabia and the UAE ensured consistent propylene output. However, producers faced higher feedstock and energy costs linked to fluctuating crude oil benchmarks. The marginal increase in production costs provided limited price support, cushioning the downside movement.

Demand Conditions

Downstream demand remained soft, particularly from polypropylene manufacturers exporting to Europe and Asia. Persistent weakness in global PP prices restricted profit margins for MEA producers, leading to cautious feedstock procurement.

Market Stability Factors

Long-term supply contracts, coupled with regional demand for petrochemical intermediates, prevented a steeper decline in the Propylene Price Index. Additionally, regional producers benefited from low logistics costs and proximity to feedstock sources, maintaining competitive advantages despite global headwinds.

Outlook

Barring a sharp decline in crude oil prices, the MEA Propylene market is expected to remain relatively stable through Q3 2025, with moderate fluctuations driven by global downstream demand recovery and refinery throughput changes.

South America: Demand Weakness and Import Competition Drive Prices Lower

In South America, the Propylene Price Index fell sharply by 14.3% in Q2 2025 compared to the previous quarter. Propylene Polymer Grade CFR Santos settled at USD 887/MT by late June, marking one of the steepest regional declines globally.

Supply-Demand Imbalance

The South American market struggled with excess supply amid soft downstream demand and surging imports from low-cost producers, particularly the United States. This import competition heavily weighed on domestic market prices and discouraged local producers from increasing operating rates.

Industrial and Trade Trends

Downstream consumption across Brazil and Argentina weakened amid persistent inflation and subdued consumer confidence. The polypropylene and propylene derivatives industries faced reduced output as converters minimized feedstock intake to manage inventories and protect margins.

Currency depreciation in several Latin American economies further compounded the problem by increasing import costs, but not enough to counter the global price softness. As a result, local suppliers faced shrinking profit margins.

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Market Forecast

If demand from the packaging and construction sectors does not recover, the Propylene Price Index in South America may remain depressed in the near term. However, potential production rationalization and reduced U.S. exports in Q3 2025 could bring modest relief.

Comparative Regional Analysis: Q2 2025 Price Trends

Global Market Overview

The global Propylene Price Index averaged USD 865/MT in Q2 2025, marking a ~7.9% decline from Q1 levels. The synchronized price weakness across major regions highlights an ongoing structural imbalance—supply growth exceeding consumption recovery.

With demand from the polypropylene, acrylic fiber, and propylene oxide sectors yet to show consistent improvement, global price sentiment remained bearish through the quarter.

Outlook for Q3 2025 and Beyond

The outlook for the Propylene Price Index in Q3 2025 remains cautiously bearish, with prices expected to stabilize at lower levels before potential recovery later in the year.

Key Market Indicators to Watch

• Refinery and PDH plant maintenance schedules: Any unplanned outages could tighten supply.
• Crude oil price trends: Volatility in crude prices will continue influencing feedstock costs.
• Downstream polypropylene demand: A rebound in packaging and automotive demand could lift offtake.
• Trade policy developments: Changes in tariffs and logistics may affect interregional price spreads.

If macroeconomic headwinds ease and global manufacturing rebounds, propylene prices may regain upward traction in late Q3 or early Q4 2025.

Conclusion

The Propylene Price Index experienced a broad-based decline across all major regions in Q2 2025, with North America and South America witnessing the steepest drops. The combination of high supply levels, weak downstream demand, and uncertain trade conditions created a challenging market environment.

While MEA maintained relative stability due to production cost dynamics, the overall global outlook remained subdued. As markets transition into Q3 2025, industry participants will closely monitor refinery operations, PP demand trends, and crude oil movements to gauge potential recovery signals.

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