Raisins Prices Forecast: Key Market Drivers Across Major Regions in Q2 2026

According to ChemAnalyst, The Raisins Prices market experienced mixed regional trends during the second quarter of 2026, reflecting varying supply-demand dynamics, production costs, and macroeconomic conditions across major consuming regions. While North America witnessed an upward movement in prices due to elevated production expenses, Asia-Pacific and Europe recorded price declines amid abundant global supplies, softer demand, and weaker industrial activity.

Raisins continue to play a significant role in the global dried fruit industry, serving as a key ingredient in bakery products, cereals, confectionery, dairy products, snacks, and health foods. Market participants closely monitored changes in agricultural output, grape harvest quality, freight costs, labor availability, weather conditions, and inflationary pressures throughout the quarter.

The second quarter highlighted how regional economic indicators, including Producer Price Index (PPI), retail sales, industrial production, and consumer demand, significantly influenced the overall direction of Raisins Prices worldwide.

North America Raisins Prices Movement

The United States Raisins Price Index increased on a quarter-over-quarter basis during Q2 2026, largely supported by higher production expenses throughout the value chain.

Raisins FOB USA were assessed at USD 2,950 per metric ton during the quarter.

Several factors contributed to this price increase:

• Higher labor costs during grape harvesting and processing
• Increased packaging material expenses
• Elevated transportation and logistics charges
• Rising utility and energy costs for drying operations
• Inflationary pressures impacting agricultural production

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Although domestic demand remained relatively stable, manufacturers faced mounting operational costs, leading suppliers to pass a portion of these expenses to buyers.

California, which accounts for the overwhelming majority of U.S. raisin production, experienced continued cost pressures associated with irrigation, farm labor, and processing facilities. While grape yields remained generally satisfactory, production expenditures continued climbing throughout the quarter.

Food manufacturers continued purchasing raisins for:

• Breakfast cereals
• Bakery applications
• Trail mixes
• Snack products
• Nutritional supplements
• Dairy products

Steady consumption from these industries helped maintain healthy buying interest despite higher pricing.

Export demand also remained relatively supportive, allowing suppliers to maintain firm FOB quotations throughout the quarter.

Key Drivers Behind U.S. Raisins Prices

Several interconnected factors shaped pricing during Q2 2026.

Rising Agricultural Production Costs

Labor shortages and increasing wages remained among the largest contributors to production expenses. Vineyard management, harvesting, drying, sorting, and packaging all became more expensive compared to previous quarters.

Processing Expenses

Raisin processing involves cleaning, grading, moisture control, packaging, and storage. Rising electricity and natural gas prices added additional cost burdens for processors.

Transportation Costs

Domestic trucking rates and export logistics remained elevated, increasing total delivered costs for both domestic and international customers.

Stable Consumer Demand

Demand from food manufacturers remained healthy, preventing any significant downward pressure on prices despite higher costs.

APAC Raisins Prices Analysis

Unlike North America, the China Raisins Price Index declined during Q2 2026.

The market was primarily influenced by:

• Increased global raisin supply
• Slower retail demand
• Competitive international pricing
• Weak grape prices during MY 2025/26

China's retail sales increased by only 1.0% in June 2026, indicating relatively subdued consumer spending compared to previous periods.

Although consumer demand remained positive, it was insufficient to absorb expanding supplies entering both domestic and international markets.

Production Costs Continued Rising

Despite lower market prices, production expenses moved upward.

China's Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 4.1% in June 2026, raising manufacturing and processing costs across the dried fruit industry.

Higher expenses were observed in:

• Packaging
• Energy
• Transportation
• Processing operations
• Agricultural inputs

However, these increases were partially offset by weaker grape prices during the 2025/26 marketing year.

Lower grape procurement costs helped processors manage rising operational expenses, reducing the need for aggressive price increases.

Supply Conditions in China

Global raisin production remained sufficient throughout Q2.

Major producing countries reported satisfactory harvest expectations, increasing export availability and intensifying market competition.

Chinese buyers had access to:

• Domestic production
• Imported raisins
• Competitive international offers

The resulting oversupply placed downward pressure on domestic prices despite increasing production expenses.

Export-oriented processors also faced stronger competition from other major raisin-exporting countries, limiting pricing flexibility.

Consumer Demand in APAC

Consumer demand remained relatively cautious during Q2 2026.

Although raisins continue gaining popularity as healthy snack ingredients, purchasing activity slowed because of:

• Conservative household spending
• Moderate retail growth
• Competitive pricing among dried fruits
• Seasonal buying patterns

Food manufacturers maintained procurement but avoided excessive inventory accumulation due to adequate supply availability.

Europe Raisins Prices Analysis

Germany experienced declining Raisins Prices throughout Q2 2026.

The German Raisins Price Index decreased quarter-over-quarter as weakening industrial activity reduced purchasing momentum across food manufacturing sectors.

Industrial contraction during June 2026 negatively influenced business confidence, resulting in cautious procurement practices.

Manufacturers preferred purchasing smaller quantities while monitoring broader economic developments.

Rising Production Costs Amid Falling Prices

Interestingly, production expenses continued increasing despite declining market prices.

Germany's Producer Price Index increased by 2.2% in May 2026, contributing to higher manufacturing costs across the food processing sector.

Cost increases affected:

• Food processing
• Packaging
• Energy consumption
• Transportation
• Warehousing

However, these cost increases were insufficient to offset weak market demand and abundant supply conditions.

As a result, suppliers adjusted prices downward to remain competitive.

European Supply Dynamics

European raisin buyers benefited from ample product availability during Q2.

Imports from major exporting countries remained consistent, ensuring stable inventories throughout the quarter.

With sufficient stocks available, buyers had little urgency to increase purchases.

Competitive offers among suppliers further contributed to declining regional prices.

The combination of:

• Healthy inventories
• Weak industrial demand
• Stable imports
• Competitive international pricing

created a bearish pricing environment across much of Europe.

Factors Influencing Global Raisins Prices

Several major variables collectively shaped Raisins Prices during the second quarter of 2026.

Agricultural Production

Weather conditions remain one of the most important variables influencing raisin production.

Key producing countries closely monitored:

• Vineyard productivity
• Water availability
• Temperature fluctuations
• Harvest timing
• Disease management

Any disruption during grape cultivation can significantly affect future raisin availability.

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Grape Prices

Raw grape prices directly influence raisin manufacturing costs.

Lower grape prices helped offset increasing production expenses in China, while stable grape procurement supported U.S. production despite rising operational costs.

Future grape harvest quality will remain a major pricing determinant.

Energy Costs

Drying grapes into raisins requires considerable energy consumption.

Changes in electricity and natural gas prices directly affect:

• Drying facilities
• Processing plants
• Cold storage
• Packaging operations

Higher energy prices generally translate into higher finished product costs.

Freight and Logistics

International raisin trade depends heavily on efficient logistics.

Shipping costs, container availability, port congestion, and inland transportation significantly influence export competitiveness.

Any disruption within global shipping networks may rapidly impact regional pricing.

Consumer Demand

Demand from multiple industries continues supporting the raisin market.

Major consuming sectors include:

• Bakery products
• Breakfast cereals
• Snack foods
• Dairy products
• Confectionery
• Health foods
• Nutritional bars

Changing consumer preferences toward healthier snacks continue providing long-term support for global raisin consumption.

Global Trade Trends

International raisin trade remained active during Q2 2026.

Major exporting countries continued supplying global markets with relatively adequate volumes.

Competitive export pricing intensified competition among suppliers, particularly in Asia and Europe.

North American exporters maintained stronger pricing due to elevated production costs rather than supply shortages.

Importers benefited from diversified sourcing opportunities, allowing buyers greater flexibility in negotiating contracts.

Market Outlook for Raisins Prices

Looking ahead, Raisins Prices are expected to remain influenced by agricultural fundamentals, macroeconomic conditions, and evolving consumer demand.

North American prices could remain relatively firm if production costs continue increasing, particularly for labor, irrigation, energy, and logistics. Future grape harvest conditions in California will play a decisive role in determining pricing trends.

In Asia-Pacific, ample global supply and competitive export offers may continue limiting price growth unless stronger domestic consumption emerges. Any recovery in retail sales or tighter grape supplies could provide support to regional prices.

European markets are likely to remain sensitive to broader economic activity. Improved industrial production and stronger food manufacturing demand could stabilize prices, while persistent economic weakness may prolong the current bearish trend.

Weather conditions during upcoming grape-growing seasons will also be closely monitored, as unfavorable climate events could tighten global supplies and quickly reverse recent pricing trends.

Conclusion

The Raisins Prices market displayed distinct regional behavior during Q2 2026. The United States experienced price gains, with FOB USA raisins reaching USD 2,950/MT, primarily due to rising production and operating costs. In contrast, China and Germany recorded price declines as abundant global supplies, softer demand, and competitive market conditions outweighed increases in production expenses.

Despite regional differences, the global raisin industry remains fundamentally supported by steady demand from the food processing sector and growing consumer interest in healthy snack options. Going forward, production costs, grape harvests, inflation, logistics, and macroeconomic performance will continue to shape Raisins Prices across international markets. Businesses that closely monitor these factors will be better positioned to manage procurement strategies, optimize inventories, and respond effectively to changing market conditions.

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